![]() ![]() This piece of crystal ball gazing assumes no sudden deaths or disbarments amongst senior leaders, and it doesn’t suggest these results are immutable. But Kenyan election results are far from random they follow regular patterns and rarely exhibit discontinuous changes, and it is possible to make educated guesses about what will happen based on previous experience. As it contains predictions about the unknowable future, it will of course be wrong in many details. ![]() It is not sponsored or supported by any political party, and it makes no attempt to argue right or wrong, or to favour one alliance over the other it is purely to assess the current situation and to make an educated guess as to the likely outcomes. What follows is an independent, unpaid analysis. With hindsight, how accurate does that prediction look today? At the time, the Jubilee bandwagon looked near unstoppable, with two-thirds of the elected constituency incumbents then in their camp (compared to only half after the 2013 elections). The key data I used was the publicly declared political affiliations of each incumbent constituency MP and governor. Back in September 2016, I published a piece on Facebook that suggested, based on recent party dissolutions and mergers into Jubilee and the accompanying defections by numerous politicians, that – barring discontinuous events, such as the death of a senior leader – the August 2017 general elections in Kenya were already almost over and that Jubilee’s victory seemed assured. ![]()
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